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Policy Paper: The implications of the war in Ukraine for global grain supply - What to do?

Russia and Ukraine are among the largest grain producers in the world. Last year, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan accounted for about a quarter of global grain exports. What impact does the war in Ukraine have on supply security and world market prices?


For the German Economic Team, Prof. Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel from the University of Göttingen examined the direct and indirect consequences. While industrialised countries have to cope with inflationary tendencies in food, the consequences for developing countries are much more dramatic. The typically increased share of disposable income spent on food in these countries will pose very serious challenges for the people there.

As a political recommendation for action, the paper advocates for a global and coordinated response to the impending crisis. Developing countries should be supported financially and industrialised countries should refrain from or withdraw export restrictions. Furthermore, the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the cultivation of energy crops must be generally reconsidered.

Link to the Policy Paper (PDF)