In focus: Solar power for Ukraine - potential and barriers

The background

In the years leading up to the start of the Russian war of aggression, the share of solar power in Ukraine’s total electricity generation capacity had already increased significantly – from 5.9 GW in 2018 to 8.06 GW in 2022 – an increase in solar generation capacity of almost 37%. Further expansion of solar power generation is essential to meet climate change targets. But the case for solar is not just about climate change. The continuing Russian attacks on stationary energy infrastructure call for decentralised alternatives, in which solar power will play a key role. With this in mind, we are investigating how a significant expansion of solar power generation can be integrated into the Ukrainian power grid. We carried out this study on behalf of Greenpeace.

Methodology and results

Based on techno-economic modelling, we have determined the optimal share of solar power for the period 2027-30. The results show that 9.2 GW of solar generation capacity can be integrated into the Ukrainian electricity system by 2027 and up to 14 GW by 2030. This represents an increase of 8.4 GW compared to current capacity and will require an investment of almost €5 billion.

The study also analyses the technical and economic barriers that currently prevent the expansion of solar power generation.  These include barriers to market entry, lack of incentives for investors, regulatory barriers and high investment costs.

Outlook

Based on our analysis, we can show that Ukraine has a high potential as a location for solar power plants. However, a number of measures are necessary to realise this potential. These include:

• Investments in the electricity infrastructure
• Reduction of investment costs
• Electricity market liberalisation
• Strengthening public finances
• Support for end consumers

In our study, we analyse the individual measures in detail.

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