Impact of the war in Ukraine on countries in Central Asia and Eastern Europe: Low Carbon Ukraine study for the OECD Green Action Task Force
For the annual meeting of the OECD’s Green Action Task Force, we contributed a background study analysing the impact of the war in Ukraine on climate and energy policies in eight countries of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership and Central Asia: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
We find that:
- Globally, countries will face strong incentives to lower domestic consumption of fossil fuels due to high and unpredictable prices and supply issues, such as increased demand for non-Russian fossil fuels
- Exporters of energy and/or metals will be incentivised to increase exports but may be constrained by capacity or logistical difficulties
- Countries with closer ties to Russia may have access to discounted energy imports, weakening incentives to conserve energy or invest in renewables
- However, this is counteracted by a new energy security paradigm emerging in the region. Domestic renewable energy sources provide an attractive alternative to increasingly price-volatile fossil fuel imports
- A weaker global and regional macroeconomic situation will lead to a more challenging context for ambitious domestic climate policy in the region
- Conversely, reduced growth may lead to lower emissions in the short run
On June 30, Rouven Stubbe and Manuel von Mettenheim presented the policy paper at the annual meeting of the OECD’s Green Action Task Force, answered remaining questions and led an animated debate with the participants.
A policy briefing has also been prepared on the basis of the policy paper.