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Economic Conflict Research

Berlin Economics analyses the economic effects of (geo-)political conflicts, including the consequences of economic sanctions.


Geopolitical conflicts often also have an economic dimension. Economic circumstances can be the cause or trigger for conflicts, and at the same time economic measures are sometimes also used as instruments to settle a conflict. However, conflicts usually also have an impact on economic development.

Berlin Economics analyses, for example, the costs of economic sanctions on the trade of the conflict parties, as well as the broader economic effects of such measures.

With regard to military conflicts, Berlin Economics analyses their economic costs. Furthermore, Berlin Economics develops measures to strengthen economic relations between conflict parties.



The economic effect of a resolution of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict on Armenia and Azerbaijan

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict is a long-simmering conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the national affiliation of the Nagorno-Karabakh region in the South Caucasus. In addition to the humanitarian and political consequences, the conflict situation is also causing economic distortions. The economic effects of a conflict settlement are examined in more detail in this study.

The economic impact of mutual EU-Russia sanctions on the EU. Plausibility assessment of recent studies by simple estimation

The mutual sanctions imposed between Russia and the EU in the wake of the Crimea crisis in 2014 have weighed on bilateral trade. Estimates of the impact of the decline in trade on gross domestic product vary.

In order to quantify the exact impact of sanctions on trade and the gross domestic product of the European Union, Berlin Economics conducted a simple plausibility check of previous studies. While the estimates of the impact on trade were largely plausible, there were significant discrepancies with regard to the impact on gross domestic product.

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