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Macroeconomic Forecasting and Prognosis

On the basis of scientifically sound models, Berlin Economics develops application-oriented economic forecasts for selected countries.

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Within the scope of economic consulting, the analysis and forecast of macroeconomic developments is one of the core competencies of Berlin Economics. For this purpose, Berlin Economics develops macroeconomic models based on the latest scientific-quantitative research.

On this basis, in addition to macroeconomic forecasts, another area is the simulation of economic policy measures, e.g. in the tax system, and the analysis of their effects on overall economic development.

In the case of strategic issues, such as the design of monetary or exchange rate policy, Berlin Economics develops appropriate recommendations for action based on international “best practice” and precise knowledge of the country. With applied quantitative analyses and targeted recommendations, it supports decision-makers in making optimal use of the instruments of monetary, exchange rate and fiscal policy.

 

References

How do exchange rate fluctuations affect Moldovan import demand?

Exchange rate fluctuations can have a significant impact on import demand. As part of a technical note, the GET team examined the impact of fluctuations in the leu on Moldovan imports.

Der Analyseschwerpunkt dieses Technical Notes liegt auf der Nachfrageelastizität der aggregierten Importnachfrage im Hinblick auf Wechselkursschwankungen. Auch wenn Wechselkursschwankungen nicht vollständig auf die Importpreise wirken, kann der Einfluss dennoch erheblich sein und die Handelsaktivität einschränken. Im Falle Moldaus wird bei einer Abwertung des Leu um 10% eine Erhöhung der Preise von Importgütern um 5-6% erwartet. Es ist also ein signifikanter Effekt festzustellen und zu erwarten.

Full Technical Note

Economic Outlook in Eastern Partnership Countries

As part of an ongoing series, Berlin Economics periodically publishes an overview of macroeconomic developments in the GET advisory countries.

This Economic Outlook examines the economic development in the GET advisory countries Ukraine, Belarus, Moldova, Uzbekistan, Georgia and Armenia on the basis of relevant macroeconomic indicators. Another focus is the economic impact of the Covid 19 pandemic.

Download Economic Outlook