From Production to Deployment: Strengthening Ukraine's Electric Public Transport Value Chain

Authored by Yiğit Tahmisoğlu, Pavel Bilek, and Viktor Zagreba, the report provides a comprehensive assessment of Ukraine’s domestic electric public transport manufacturing sector — electric buses, trolleybuses, and trams — and identifies the policy actions needed to unlock its full industrial and economic potential.

The report is motivated by a central question facing Ukraine’s reconstruction: whether investments in urban public transport will utilise domestically produced transport solutions or primarily finance imported vehicles. Electric public transport manufacturing would support Ukraine‘s industrial diversification toward higher value-added activity, transport sector decarbonisation aligned with Ukraine’s climate commitments, and deeper integration with EU value chains and standards as the country advances toward EU accession.

Ukraine has a functioning industrial base across all relevant segments, with price competitiveness and operational experience relevant to both domestic and EU markets. Yet without consistent demand, which is constrained by limited municipal financing, manufacturers face sporadic order books that prevent sustained investment in scaling production, compounded by a lack of working capital support to bridge production cycles.

The economic value generation potential is significant. In a best-case scenario, electric public transport manufacturing would generate EUR 387 million annually in domestic gross value added (EUR 162 million from direct manufacturing, EUR 142 million across the domestic supply chain, and EUR 83 million from infrastructure works), and a further EUR 9-15 million in avoided diesel import costs. It would also deliver ~49,000 tCO₂e in annual greenhouse gas savings. By contrast, continuing at the current pace would generate only around EUR 45 million in gross value added annually — roughly 12% of the best-case scenario.

The report sets out a sequenced set of policy recommendations across supply, demand, and export dimensions — including working-capital guarantees, grant-based R&D support, infrastructure rehabilitation, reformed public service obligation contracting, a dedicated certification grant fund, and an export credit architecture for public transport vehicles.

In summary, the choices made in the coming years will shape whether Ukraine’s electric public transport sector develops into a durable pillar of industrial recovery and EU integration. With adequately resourced and well-sequenced public support, the same investment volumes could build domestic productive capacity, deliver measurable emissions reductions, and position Ukrainian manufacturers within the European electric public transport value chain over the coming decade.

Access the full report here:

From production to deployment- Strengthening Ukraine’s electric public transport value chain

This project was funded by the European Climate Foundation.